January 6, 2004 – According to a 3-day
tracking poll taken by American Research Group, Governor Howard Dean
is maintaining a strong lead, while Wesley Clark has moved up into a
dead heat for second place. The numbers:
Dean has come down from his heights of 45%, which
he registered in mid-December, to 37% in this poll, while Kerry
continues to dip from a 20% showing at that time, which was still
19% as recently as last week, down to 14%. Clark in the
meantime has risen from 8% at mid-month to 14%, to stake himself in
an actual tie for second with Kerry. This is the first time Clark
has been truly tied for second and not just within margin of
No other candidate had a showing above 6%.
16% remain undecided.
And in a national CNN poll (Poll Shows Democratic Race Tightening), Clark is
tied within the margin-of-error. Dean received 24% to Clark’s
20%. The margin of error was =/- 5%.
In the last national CNN poll (taken in December,
Dean received 27% to Clark’s 12%.
As the CNN article says, “Clark is the only
Democratic candidate to show momentum in the past month," Schneider
said. "The attacks on Dean from his fellow Democrats could be taking
a toll on the front-runner.”
In other words, can you say the press is finally
reporting Clark on the rise, Dean on the way down?
Right on schedule, just about a month behind when
we reported it.