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JANUARY 4, 2003 – When we first wrote
on December 5 (One Campaign Rising, One Holding Strong, One On The
Way Out) that General Clark had moved into solid second place status
and the race was a two man battle between Dean and Clark, no one
else in the press was even talking about the General. Article
after article was being written without even mentioning his name as
one of the contenders.
Kerry or Gephardt or even Lieberman were still
being looked at as the number twos. The General was only
mentioned on rare occasion to say his campaign had faltered after a
fast start.
Now, almost a month later, the mainstream media
cannot write enough articles saying exactly what we said back
then. Here is just a sample from the past week:
Newsweek: The Dean Dilemna:
Dean will have the
cash to play everywhere, but so, it appears, may one other
candidate: Clark. The retired general, a growing favorite of
Clintonites and party donors from coast to coast (and with an
impressively savvy Internet operation of his own), came relatively
close to matching Dean in fund-raising in the fourth quarter of last
year (collecting roughly $11 million to Dean's $16 million). Trippi
claims, with some justice, that "we're the only campaign that can
reload" because Clark, despite his impressive Internet showing, is
raising money mostly from large donors who are "maxing out" with
$2,000 contributions. But if he catches on, Clark might be able to
"reload" in a different way, by harvesting big donations from
Clintonistas and former supporters of Washington-based candidates
who fall by the wayside.
In any case, Clark
has the potential to be Trippi's—and Dean's—worst nightmare, and a
comeuppance of a sort as well: a second, fast-closing Web-based
outsider who can, in ways Dean cannot, appeal to insiders while at
the same time "plugging that hole" Dean has on defense and foreign
policy.
One Dean defense
against the rise of Clark may be the devalued—but not quite
defunct—campaign of John Kerry, who began last year as the pundits'
pick. But his campaign has been riven with confusion and mixed
messages from the moment last spring when he voted to authorize Bush
to go to war in Iraq.
Or how about this one from the Washington Post
that might as well just be a reprint of our original
article:
Washington Post: Rivals Hone Their Anti-Dean
Strategies:
Clark, who
entered the race in September, is perhaps best positioned to
challenge Dean for two key reasons: his fundraising prowess and
military résumé, strategists for several campaigns said. The former
supreme commander of NATO, his aides said yesterday, raised between
$10.5 million and $11.1 million in the past three months, which,
coupled with the $3.7 million in federal matching funds wired to the
campaigns today, is close to Dean's record-setting performance this
quarter. Dean, who opted out of the federal financing system, thus
forfeiting matching funds, will top $15 million for the period,
according to his campaign.
Clark will
make his biggest play Jan. 27 in New Hampshire, where he will spend
much of the month shooting for third place or better. Clark is
skipping Iowa, including the two televised debates in the state.
This allows him to spend more time with voters in New Hampshire and
other states. The winner in Iowa will receive a surge of free media
attention leading up to New Hampshire.
Clark is
the only candidate moving up in New Hampshire, according to public
polls and internal surveys by two rival campaigns, though he trails
Dean and Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.). If Clark can overtake Kerry,
the retired general could storm into the seven states holding votes
on Feb. 3 with significant momentum. With more money than many of
his rivals, Clark is planning a sustained media campaign in South
Carolina, Tennessee, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arizona
for four weeks until those states vote, a top adviser said. The
campaign is also planning to buy television airtime in Wisconsin and
Virginia. Dean is the only other candidate advertising on television
in so many states.
It's nice that someone who works for as large an
organization as the Washington Post can arrive at what we concluded
only about a month after the fact.
Terry Neal, one of the Post's top political
analysts, catches up as well:
But for now, many
analysts like Sabato and Brazile agree that the closest thing to a
Dean antidote for nervous party centrists is the most Dean-like
candidate, retired Army General Wesley K. Clark, a staunch Iraq war
opponent who, like Dean, is prone to gaffes, is raising money hand
over fist and is rising in the polls.
"Clark is
in the same situation as Dean," Brazile says. "He's flip-flopped and
made mistakes, and his support is still growing. You've got to ask,
why do you have these newcomers, these outsiders coming to the
forefront of the national scene."
Clark is
coming on strong in three of the Feb. 3 primary states (running
second to Dean in Arizona, South Carolina and Oklahoma), and his
campaign is expected to raise about $10 million this quarter, more
than enough to keep him competitive through Feb. 3.
From MSNBC to CBS to every major newspaper in the
country, they rest of the media, about a month after the fact, is
reporting the simple reality, that General Clark has moved into
next-to-frontrunner status. For the past month they have been
either ignoring the General entirely, putting him far too low in the
rankings, or dwelling on petty right-wing talking points about
person, politically-motivated criticism from a peer here or
there. Finally, they have gotten past that and caught up with
where we were on December 5.
They are also reporting what said back then - that
Dean's campaign has peaked, and that Kerry's campaign is done.
Yes, everything we said on December 5 is no the accepted political
wisdom.
That is great, except that that is outdated by
now. We told you on December 16 (Dean On The Way Down) that Dean is actually on the
way down now and the entire dynamics have shifted in the
race.
Yes, no one else in the media is reporting this
yet - as no one was reporting on December 5 what we said then.
So, if we expect about the same month delay, I would say the
mainstream media has one and half to two weeks of continuing to get
it wrong before they start reporting what is the obvious
reality: Dean is clearly on his way down, while Clark is still
rising strong.
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