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MAY
25, 2004 – Some people don’t quite
get it yet, but loyal M/I readers understand.
They remember from the primaries.
While
other news sources come up with two or three articles a day
analyzing the election, we at The Moderate Independent file a story
ever few weeks or so usually, barring actual significant news, which
really only tends to occur in the short period directly before the
election.
So
while we told you on March 4 (see
article: Bush
In A Lot Of Trouble),
that barring significant changes, Bush was going to get clobbered
this fall, the rest of the press still had it a horse race. They now blame this or that incident, the abuse, the
insurgent attacks, for the President’s declining numbers. They analyze his speech and give it 7,000 dead trees worth of
critique and analysis. And
yet still they miss the point.
The
dynamic that has changed is not some unexpected response to
unexpected events. Truly,
the events, aside from being things anyone who was paying attention
knew were happening, are only the secondary factor in President
Bush’s declining numbers.
The
main factor causing the President’s decline is John Kerry.
Yes,
that’s right. The man
people are saying people haven’t embraced yet.
The man people are saying hasn’t been campaigning enough.
He is the reason President Bush’s numbers are tumbling.
When
we said a few weeks ago (see article: The
Road To A John Kerry Landslide Continues), that “The Road To A
Kerry Landslide Continues,” we got a number of irate e-mails from
Moderate Independents who believed we were being to easy on Kerry,
that fumed about how Kerry wasn’t speaking out boldly enough or
running a good campaign and that just because President Bush was
having some troubles didn’t mean Kerry would be embraced.
But
the simple reality, as we said in that March 4 article, is that
Kerry is not the typical liberal the Democrats have been throwing
out as their candidate, nor is he the take-it-on-the-chin schmoozer
Clinton was. Kerry is
not from the Harvard wimp breed of Northeasterner, he is from the
Boston-in-your-face breed. His
war veteran status is not just a status, it is a part of who he is.
In short, as we have been saying – much to some people’s
chagrin – is that John Kerry truly is the real deal in terms of
being a tough as nails war hero.
And
while the entire rest of the media has ignored this factor, it has
changed the perspective of the American people in terms of how they
feel about President Bush and his administration.
The very presence of a war hero on the other side of the
aisle has taken away the free ride Bush had been given with regard
to being thought of as the better choice in terms of foreign policy.
Previously the American people felt they had no real
alternative to consider and that Republicans were the military and
the military was all Republican.
It
may be lost of the non-Moderate Independent media but it hasn’t
been on the American people, especially those who are paying
attention to the news and the election.
The chicken hawk line of commentary, that neither Bush nor
Cheney served in combat and Kerry did.
Combining this with Generals breaking ranks and for the first
time in generations the American people are truly seeing the
military not as something that only Republicans can handle but as
something that needs a leader, not a politician.
Even more, people have begun to see Bush and Cheney as
frauds, as rich boys who brag and bluster a lot and talk tough but
are only brave with other people’s lives and who do not have an
adequate respect for death and brutality.
This
last reality is why the abuse scandal is hitting so hard.
If it were Howard Dean as the Democratic choice, Bush’s
numbers would not be so affected.
But when the people have a safe option, the option of a man
who has served, been decorated, stood up against such abuses during
a time of war, and served his country for decades, they are now
willing to question, challenge, and criticize their President in
time of war, even those who wouldn’t do so before.
And,
true to the dynamic we described last week (see article: John
Kerry, Leader Or Loser?), John Kerry’s northeastern brand of
charm is wooing people, whether they are aware of it or not.
No one else in the media gets this yet.
In
that article I wrote, “While many politicians are constantly
blathering away, John Kerry comes from the old vein of talk softly
and carry a big stick…” And
that is what John has been doing.
People keep saying why isn’t he lashing out about Iraq, the
abuse. And the answer
is because he gives people credit for being able to critique it
themselves and, even more importantly, doesn’t feel the need to
come out and shout, “Hey, see – wouldn’t I be better?
I’m a vet! I
would have more respect and be on top of thing, so shouldn’t you
vote for me?”
Nope.
John considers all of this to be readily apparent.
He said it before – if you missed it, go look it up, ask
someone. He’s not
going to baby you. He
knows he would do a better job, he considers it a simple fact, and
true to his talk softly and carry a big stick nature, he will let
that big stick of reality speak for itself.
Even
more, as I previously described, “In effect, the media and
campaign advisors are Ralph and Potsy from Happy Days. They come
charging in to Al’s Diner shooting off their mouths, blathering on
and on and on, and there in the corner is John Kerry – The Fonz
– just off of his Harley, looking quietly at the jukebox, and the
campaign advisors come running up behind him and say, like Ralph
Mouth, "Hey John, the Bush gang says this and that and this and
that and what are you gonna do?" And then the media comes up
like Potsy and says, "Yeah, they’re out there talking real
mean – aren’t you gonna respond? What are you gonna do? Huh?
Huh? Huh?" And
Kerry keeps staring down at the jukebox, finally selects a song,
then turns back slowly to look at them and says, "Hey, be
cool," and walks away.”
That’s
what John has been doing.
And
this is – unbeknownst to many – attracting people to Kerry’s
side like mad. Yes, it
is this dynamic that I had previously described playing out as
expected:
“John
Kerry’s appeal is not that of the sweet talking charmer who walks
into a bar and strolls right up to a girl sitting alone and starts
dishing out one liners and buying drinks. John is the guy who walks
into a bar and doesn’t seem to notice there are even women in the
joint. He simply sits down, starts reading something he is
interested in. It drives the women crazy. They start walking by him
seductively. Nothing. One squeezes up to the bar next to him to
order a drink, looks his way. Nothing. She says hi. He briefly looks
up, nods, goes back to reading his book. The women go insane. And
what do they start to call him? That’s right: aloof, distant, just as the media calls
Kerry. These women
would call him aloof, claim they are put off by his distant,
arrogant nature, but in reality they are intrigued – especially
since in the end he is a tall, attractive, Harley-driving, highly
intelligent war hero.”
Yes,
people are angry at first, then frustrated, but in the end, they are
drawn to John for who he is and the quiet confidence with which he
operates. Rather than
going after people saying, “This is what I have to say, vote for
me, vote for me, vote for me,” he has the entire nation asking,
“What does John have to say about this.”
And so rather than annoying the nation, driving them away and
turning them off, he has them like frustrated schoolgirls who
can’t get that attractive teacher to notice them as females but
only as students. The
nation is getting a bit nuts. And
it is all working to Kerry’s favor.
Don’t
worry, John will speak eventually.
And he will speak strongly and intelligently and
charismatically. Call
him aloof or longwinded, when he talks, he sounds deepvoicedly
presidential. He
inspires confidence and projects stature.
So
let the rest of the media write their three-a-day commentaries and
go back and forth from this view of the election to that, we are
sticking to what we told you months ago, that this election will not
be close. John Kerry
will win by a landslide, and he will use his northern charm to a
tee, redefining for a new generation what cool actually is.
Generations
X and Y never knew the Fonz, and they didn’t grow up with Clint
Eastwood. They are used
to, especially with regard to politicians and talk show hosts,
thinking those who babble the loudest and nastiest to be the tough
guy. There is about to
be a huge shift in opinion among the American people, and it has
already begun. Bush
will go down, and these talk radio hosts will lose their audiences
in droves as people come to see them as the obnoxious, babbling
ratings hounds that they are.
So
to sum up clearly, Bush’s numbers are down not because of this
scandal or that insurgent bombing but because President Bush’s
horrible policies are playing out as expected and John Kerry is
stealth-charming the nation into a frenzy that will win him the
election by a landslide not seen since the Reagan days. |
