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MAY 17, 2004 – A new American
Research Group (ARG) poll shows Democratic presidential hopeful
Senator John Kerry (D-MA) surging ahead in the key bellwether state
of Ohio.
Ohio, which went Bush in the last
election and is deemed to be one of the central battlegrounds in the
upcoming election, is now breaking hard for the Democratic
challenger.
According the ARG’s Dick Bennett, "John
Kerry leads George W. Bush in Ohio 49% to 42%, with 2% for Ralph
Nader. Without Nader on the ballot, it's Kerry 50% and Bush 43%. "
That is an enormous surge in a state
that just a short while ago had President Bush leading.
Bennett says the surge is due both to
weakening support for the President among Republicans and increasing
support for Kerry among independents.
"Kerry is running stronger among
Democrats than Bush is running among Republicans and Kerry leads
Bush 48% to 43% among self-described independents," says Bennett.
According to this poll, taken May 10-12,
there are far more Democrats who have an unfavorable opinion of Bush
than Republicans who view Kerry unfavorably, by a 17% margin. This
is despite the Bush campaign having spent $70 million on largely
negative ads trying to paint an ugly portrait of the Massachusetts
senator.
In national polls, Kerry has moved ahead
as well. A May 13 Time/CNN poll has Kerry leading Bush 51-46% in a
two way matchup.
This is especially phenomenal as
challengers are rarely leading at this point. Even Reagan, when he
was running against Carter, and Clinton, when he was running against
Bush, Sr., were not leading in the polls at this point in the race.
However, Both Carter and Bush, Sr. had similar unfavorable ratings
and low job approval ratings at this point to the younger Bush. So
while the bad news for President Bush is as bad as it was for Carter
and Bush, Sr., the good news at this point for Kerry is even better
than it was for Reagan and Clinton at this point.
This is likely because Kerry is viewed
more moderately than Reagan was and his war hero credentials make
him less of a national defense worry than the unknown Democratic
Governor from Arkansas - Bill Clinton - was.
As for the looming question about who
Kerry will pick for VP, General Wesley Clark is the place to put
smart money at this point.
Earlier we had suggested
in this article that Senator Kerry would only benefit from
someone who could solidify his foreign policy gravitas, as, thanks
largely to his Vietnam era protesting, that is the only area he is
vulnerable to attack which a VP choice could help solidify - i.e.
two never-foughts (Bush/Cheney) might be able to impugn one
decorated soldier, but going after two would make them simply seem
to have something against people who fight for their country.
While previously we had suggested that
former Georgia Senator Max Cleland might be the most likely pick for
Kerry, as he is a war hero, southerner, and a good friend of the
Senator, events seem to be pointing much more toward former
presidential hopeful General Wesley Clark.
When the prisoner abuse scandal broke,
again and again it was Clark - not Cleland - who Kerry and the
Democrats turned to. Clark delivered the Democrats' Saturday radio
address, with the prisoner abuse scandal as the central topic. The
next day, Clark was tagged to appear on NBC's Face The Nation to
tackle the topic. And just a few days later, Clark and Kerry stood
arm in arm in the battleground state of Arkansas, with Clark again
playing the heavy in taking the Bush administration to task over the
prisoner abuse scandal.
Clark, more than anyone else, represents
the American military at its best, and is a man who has shown he
knows how to plan things - and execute them - correctly. With Clark
as VP, the Kerry ticket will be able to directly contrast the right
way and the wrong way to deal with horrible dictators: the
successful, effective way Clark dealt with Serbian butcher Slobodan
Milosevic vs. the mess President Bush has created with his
unilateral approach to dealing with Saddam Hussein.
In addition to this, Clark is a
southerner who hails from a winnable battleground state - former
President Clinton's home of Arkansas - and who formerly leaned
Republican, having voted for Reagan and Bush, Sr in previous
elections. While the media is gushing over how a Kerry/McCain ticket
could unify the country and would be the Democratic "Dream Team," a
Kerry/Clark ticket would bring the upside for the candidate without
the downside, bringing in someone who has voted on both sides of the
aisle but doesn't bring the anti-abortion and hard core conservative
streak McCain does on certain issues. And Clark's military
experience is far more relevant to the current situation than
McCain's.
Still, if McCain was willing, Kerry
might choose him as he is the more seasoned political veteran, and
Clark could be included on the team as a potential Secretary of
State - truly the role Clark may be most suited to.
But in reality, Clark would do just as
much to make a Kerry ticket palatable to formerly Republican-leaning
independents as McCain without upsetting the base, and Clark has in
fact shown himself to be an adept fundraiser and established a solid
grassroots network of supporters.
So while the rest of the media is
largely ignoring Clark's existence, a number of factors make it
appear that he is the most likely choice to round out Kerry's ticket
at the moment. And as for the rest of the media's success in gauging
the political winds, remember, they were saying Iraq would be the
strong point for the Bush campaign this election and that Howard
Dean would run away with the nomination, things we here at M/I
discounted early on.
If your stockbroker had such a record,
you'd probably fire him, huh? | 
