SEP 15-30, 2004

VOL. 2 ISSUE 18

SEPTEMBER 24, 2004 - Since we wrote back in May that John Kerry would win the upcoming election by a landslide (see: The Road To A John Kerry Landslide Continues,) the non-Moderate Independent media and pundits have been oscillating this way or that, belching forth nonsense with each event, fictional poll, or stupid ad or talk radio-led discussion about nonsense that has occurred.

All the while, nothing has changed about the situation.  It is exactly as we reported it early on.  Take a look at the latest American Research Group polling numbers.  Even with all the nonsense that has been going on in the non-M/I media - the stories about Bush surging ahead and Democrats starting to doubt Kerry - Senator Kerry, if the election were held today, would win.  Period.  This according to the non-partisan American Research Group polls we have been following all along - the ones that nailed the primaries.

But polls aside, there is a simple fact people are missing.

James Carville sent out a memo today to "The Democratic Establishment."  In it, he lashed out about the "carping and whining in Democratic circles," calling it "in no way justified by any fair-minded analysis of the current data."

He then goes on to cite "the best private polls and the best public non-
media poll" as showing the race a dead heat - showing what we said all along, that insiders know polls like the TIME and Gallup polls are nonsense and don't give them any heed.

Carville's memo beckons Democrats to pull it together (as he put it, "cut the crap and pull together.")  He says John Kerry's current standing in the polls shows that, "John Kerry has an excellent chance to win this election.  In fact, John Kerry probably will win this election."

What Carville doesn't seem to get that this fretting and complaining about John Kerry at this point is a natural part of The Kerry Curve.

With John Kerry, voters and party supporters go through a three stage process.

First, they fall in love with him, mainly for his profile.  A decorated Vietnam vet, a good-looking gentleman with lots of experience on the domestic front as well.  When people take a first look at John, they flock to him in droves.

What then occurs is the second stage of The Kerry Curve.  People like to try to get actively involved in helping him get elected.  However, John runs an "aloof" - remember that word they tried to pin on him early on - campaign.  He keeps would be volunteers at a long arms length.  Basically, he doesn't know them and so doesn't want to empower these strangers to do any damage to the campaign.

While this may sound cold, what it really is based on is that John is a strong leader who truly trusts himself and his judgment.  He is going to be the one in charge, to set the course, and only those he really knows he can trust will be empowered to truly assist.

This frustrates the heck out of supporters and party activists.  They want to have their input, they want to feel wanted by the campaign, they want to feel important, useful, and heard.

Instead - exactly opposite to what the Bush campaign rhetoric claims about John - they find a man who steadfastly sticks to the course he chooses.  He doesn't want or allow a lot of input from others in the Democratic Party or supporters.  It drives these people - especially the "Democratic Establishment" Carville wrote his memo to - crazy.  And it offends and, at first, distances would-be supporters.

And so from initial infatuation, there is a sort of frustrated, worried period occurs where people start to feel dissatisfied with how Kerry and his campaign treats them.  They feel it is unresponsive and "aloof."

This is what has led to some of the "carping and whining" among Democrats and a softening of support with some of his would-be voters.

But what follows this second stage in The Kerry Curve is the realization that it is okay that Kerry is responding as you tell him to, that he is not spending a lot of time or effort trying to make you feel loved, or that he doesn't seem to be giving you opportunities to voice your wishes for his campaign.  This is because, in the end, people see that simply they can trust John to guide the fight himself.  This is the third stage of The Kerry Curve.

Stage three is were people realize Kerry is not a Bush, who needs to hear from a thousand advisers lest he be lost in total ignorance, or a Clinton, who needed to see the polling data to be sure he was doing what the people wanted.  Kerry is a very smart, very experienced - on many fronts - man who is confident.  Yes, confident.  Confident in his intellect and his ability to make decisions and lead a fight.  Again, this is exactly contrary to the picture the Bush/Limbaughians paint of him.

Frustrated members of the Democratic Establishment and Kerry supporters lash out about how he is not responding as they would want him to, how his should be doing this or that - and then they give up trying to help, sit back, and realize he is fighting an awesome, tough, well-crafted fight entirely without their input.  And when they realize that, they realize that in John Kerry they have exactly what everyone truly wants in a President in the end - someone they don't have to share their voice with or point things out to, but instead someone who will allow them to simply put national and world affairs out of their mind because they can trust they are being well attended to.

In Kerry's previous elections, we have seen this cycle play out, where he "comes from behind" and pulls out strong victories.  In reality, he didn't come from behind.  People just got to stage three of The Kerry Curve and realized he was the best man for the job.  Kerry did nothing to pull out these victories, nothing different than he had been doing all along.  It is just that it takes people a while to realize that the best representative is not one that listens to the people but one who knows what needs to be done without having to be told.

George Bush is an incumbent President.  He has one of the best, most vicious campaign staffs in history.  He has dominant control of the media and something that has never existed before in American politics - a massive one-side promoting propaganda machine ala the former Soviet Union's Pravda.  And he has raised more money than any candidate in history.

And yet, just a couple months before the election, he would lose the election to his challenger.  Even more, many in the nation have not even gotten to know his challenger yet through debates, yet still enough prefer him already over the President they know all too well.

The reason John Kerry will win this election by a landslide is because, as people who haven't been paying much attention yet start tuning in in the final run-up to the election, they will fall in stage one Kerry Curve love with the candidate.  They will see a strong looking man with the right credentials and experience and decide, just on this superficial level, that he is the one who should be leading the nation at the moment.

At the same time, people who have been getting to know John for a while will be in stage three of The Kerry Curve, finally confident in and extremely happy with their candidate.

These two groups together, the infatuated stage one late comers and the solidified stage three enthusiastic supporters, will propel John to a landslide victory in this election.  There is no one who doesn't already know George W. Bush who is suddenly going to fall in love with him, while the history of people falling hard for Kerry - in particular, with national security the dominant issue - is one that will repeat itself, as security moms realize that John is a person they can better put their trust in - and is more charming and manly than smirky, sarcastic little Georgie.