JULY 23, 2004 - According to American Research Group's (ARG) Dick Bennett, things are moving in Kerry's direction, in particular in the all-important battleground states.

 

We asked Mr. Bennett if would it be accurate to say that there is no battleground state in which Kerry is trending negatively.  Mr. Bennett agreed that is the case with regard to the states ARG has been tracking.  He attributes Kerry's positive movement to three things.

 

Mr. Bennett told us, "Kerry has benefited by (1) a shift of independents to him from Bush, (2) becoming stronger among Democrats so that he runs about the same among Democrats as Bush runs among Republicans (and this give Kerry a slight advantage because there are slightly more Democrats), and (3) some softening among Republicans in Kerry's favor."

 

He says this is a recurrence of the post-primary trend that saw Kerry gain ground on President Bush.

 

"This all started in May," according to Mr. Bennett, "slowed around Reagan's death, and then has started again slowly. Kerry is not running away with it, but things are trending in his favor at the moment."

 

Here are Mr. Bennett's summaries of the latest battleground state polls.

 

Florida: In a survey conducted July 13-15, Kerry is at 47%, Bush is at 44%, and Ralph Nader is at 3%. Without Nader on the ballot, it is Kerry 49% and Bush 45%. While the shift to Kerry among independents has stopped, Kerry is now doing almost as well among Democrats as Bush is doing among Republicans, which gives Kerry a slight advantage.  

WI: In a survey conducted July 13-15, Kerry is at 48%, Bush is at 42%, and Ralph Nader is at 4%. Without Nader on the ballot, it is Kerry 49% and Bush 44%. The changes in awareness are interesting not having surveyed Wisconsin since late March. While Kerry's favorable is up to 51% from 43%, his unfavorable is up to 43% from 26%. Bush's unfavorable has dropped to 46% from 54% since March.  

OH: John Kerry continues to lead George W. Bush in Ohio. (In a poll taken between June 21-23,) Kerry is at 49%, Bush is at 43%, and Ralph Nader is at 2%. Without Nader on the ballot, it is Kerry 50% and Bush 44%. These results are virtually unchanged from May. Kerry has slipped from 87% among Democrats in May to 83% among Democrats in this survey, but Kerry leads Bush 53% to 38% among independents in this survey compared to a Kerry lead of 48% to 43% among independents in May.  

NH: John Kerry has closed the gap with George W. Bush in New Hampshire. Kerry and Bush are tied at 46% each, with Ralph Nader at 2%. Without Nader on the ballot, Bush and Kerry are tied at 47% each. Like last week's national survey, Kerry is gaining among independent voters (undeclareds in NH). In April, Kerry was in front of Bush 48% to 38% among independents in the state. In the latest survey, Kerry leads Bush 58% to 32% among independents. Conservative Democrats in NH are still not going for Kerry, but if the trend to Kerry among independents continues, Kerry will take the lead. (from a June 7-9 poll)

 

Mr. Bennett's ARG was one of the most accurate sources for polling during the primary season.