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JANUARY 22, 2003 – After our
successful analysis of the elections thus far, calling what will
happen weeks before the rest of the press comes around, we have been
getting numerous e-mails from supporters of various camps asking if,
post-Iowa, we now have changed our view that General Wesley Clark
will win New Hampshire, as we predicted on January 8.
The answer is no.
Yes, the non-Moderate Independent press
is letting right-wing aligned pollster John Zogby paint the picture
the Bush/Limbaughians want out there – that Kerry is surging into
inevitability (yes, the same game they play every election now.)
The reality is that Kerry’s surge has
peaked, Clark has moved up solidly into second place, and Dean is –
as we told you well over a month ago – on the way down (see the
latest ARG poll on our main page (www.moderateindependent.com.)
The press is still having a hard time reporting this last part,
mainly because the right-wing’s plan is to try and revive the Dean
campaign after pushing Kerry in New Hampshire and Edwards in South
Carolina.
In fact, already today in the press you
saw the first recovery stories coming out for Dean, saying, “Dean's
performance wasn't angry or weird. He had the biggest grin possible.
He was having fun. I genuinely believe the national press has done
the public a horrific disservice by showing clips of that tape out
of context…” (article:
Talking Points Live )
But more important than silly little
polls is to understand what dynamics will play out over the next 5
days. And there are two things working to Clark’s advantage.
First, as we have reported, Kerry is
well-known and not overzealously loved by the people of New
Hampshire. They are leery of his chances of winning below the
Mason-Dixon line. And, despite the fact that the non-M/I press is
kissing Kerry’s butt at this point and providing nothing but
favorable coverage, they all know the “aloof” label is too fitting
(remember how a little while ago no one in the non-M/I media would
mention Kerry without inserting the word “aloof” at some point? Now
no one is using it at all.)
So Kerry can not sweep into New
Hampshire as a new exciting choice, bolstered by Iowa. People moved
quickly away from Dean after Iowa and loosely grabbed onto Kerry (in
small numbers still, he has not flown away with things in any
poll.) Yet many have gone to undecided and a sizeable number are
going right toward Clark. As Iowa gets more distant over the coming
days, expect Kerry’s bounce – as all bounces are – to be subject to
the laws of gravity and come back down a bit.
Then there is the second factor – which
we will not discuss at this point. Why? Well, frankly, we are too
widely read and don’t want to be giving campaign advice to the other
camps. So for now, we will just say there is a second major factor
at play – which no one is reporting, nor likely will – that will
work to Clark’s advantage over the next five days. Combine this
with the Kerry factor described above, and things look very well on
track for a Clark victory.
There is, of course, one additional
X-factor, and that is the all out media assault on Clark, and, of
course, that anything can happen in tonight’s debate. To this
point, the Clark camp is taking their obvious, all-out drubbing by
the media in silence. They need to point out the pattern and remind
people that it shows the right-wing is most afraid of a Clark
candidacy. In addition, Clark made a slight error earlier in the
week when he responded to an attack by heavily partisan ex-Senator
Bob Dole (R-KS). If Clark has learned that, when presented with an
attack, as he will be tonight, he should simply point out that it is
a partisan attack, as he has in the past, and shows that they are
worried about him, he can use these attacks to push himself ahead
even further.
So once again, while – now – everyone in
the non-M/I media has gone from predicting a Dean romp to predicting
a Kerry romp, we are sticking to our early view that Clark most
likely will win New Hampshire. A decent showing in the debate
tonight and Kerry’s Iowa bounce is old news, Clark’s rise and
Kerry’s cooling off the new storyline.
This combined with the second factor –
which we will tell you about at a later date – we believe, still
give Clark the advantage in the Granite State. | 
ENOUGH
OF THE DAY TO DAY POLLS - WHAT TO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE