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FEBRUARY 4, 2004
- Senator John Kerry needed to show he was still rolling with
momentum. General Wesley Clark needed to show he could win a
state and that he could best Edwards and Dean in a number of races.
Edwards needed to win his home state. And each did exactly
that.
On the flip side, some real problems
have emerged.
John Kerry has shown that, even when all
the momentum is on his side, as expected his appeal is not so strong
in the South.
Edwards won his home state and made a
nice showing in Oklahoma. Missouri was a state thrown into
play at the last minute by Gephardt's withdrawal and where no
campaign except Kerry's even ran ads, and so Missouri's results
appear to be merely a reflection of the media's coverage, putting
Kerry first, Edwards second, and Dean third.
But outside of the South, Edwards wasn't
even competitive. He finished fourth in Arizona, fourth in New
Mexico, fourth in North Dakota, and in a massive statistical 4 way
tie for second with Clark, Lieberman, and Dean in Delaware.
Again proving that every vote counts,
Clark's win in Oklahoma, however narrow, keeps him in the race.
It was lightly inferred that if he lost Oklahoma he might withdraw
from competition. A few hundred votes, and his campaign lives
on. Volunteers who made the extra effort to help get out the
vote must feel they had a direct hand in saving the political life
of their candidate last night.
Clark also showed real strength out
West, finishing a strong second in each of the three western states.
The real story here has to be that Clark
is still around to continue at all after the media did everything
possible to ensure that he would be out after last night.
Winning one and taking second in three contests while fighting
against an all out media campaign to bury him and his candidacy is a
massive victory and a thumb (or perhaps another large finger) in the
eye of the right-wing machine that hoped to have taken him out by
this point.
Notice how even yesterday the only exit
poll that had things out of order was the one related to the
Oklahoma race. Clark was listed in third place, Edwards first,
Kerry second. This was released early on and reported by all.
It would have been one thing if Edwards and Clark were put at the
top in the wrong order, but putting Clark third shows this was just
another push poll meant to discourage Clark supporters.
It didn't work.
For a campaign that had started to doubt
itself and the viability of its candidacy - doubt its power to
prosper in the face of the Republican Mean Machine - that changed
last night. Every vote Clark received last night was earned.
Not a single one was given to him by good media coverage. Not
a single one came from someone who was lightly moved to vote for
him, as any such voter would likely have been swayed by all the
negativity and flat out silence about Clark in the non-M/I media.
No, every vote that General Clark got last night was that of someone
so moved by the man and his message that they felt strongly enough
to boldly shrug off all of the nonsensical voices around them.
And, in the final count, there were a
lot of those votes. Enough to win him a state and give him
second place in three.
What is settled at this point is that
nothing is settled. Edwards needs to show he can have appeal
in other regions and win a state besides his home state. Kerry
needs to show he can compete in the South and have strong enough
appeal - beyond just momentum - to finish things off. And
Clark needs to be able to parlay his strong showing last night - in
the face of what is surely to be media downplaying and ignoring -
into the sense of momentum that should exist after such a decisive
stand amidst so much enemy fire.
The real battle now is the shakeout at
second place. The people made clear tonight they are not quite
ready to settle on Kerry. But with Clark and Edwards, and
still a lingering Dean, dividing up the not-Kerry vote, Kerry might
continue to roll. Tennessee and Virginia will likely decide
that battle: both Clark and Edwards can not still be standing
after these two Southern states make their choice. Clark and
Edwards both need victories in these states. Another split
serves neither of them.
In addition, Edwards immediately has to
prove that he can make a showing in the North and West by having
strong finishes in Michigan and Washington state.
Clark already has shown appeal out West.
His biggest need is to try and lock up at least the second spot in
these next two contests, showing he is the official non-Kerry
choice. If either campaign tries to sit these out, they will
regret it. The idea is not to beat Kerry but for Clark to
finish ahead of Edwards or vice versa.
That would set up the showdown in
Tennessee and Virginia. If Kerry wins those, the race is over.
If the two Southern contenders can't stop Kerry in their own
backyards - and if Kerry can show he can make a showing in the South
- then he will be unstoppable.
But if either Clark or Edwards can
solidify their hold on the second spot in the Michigan and
Washington races and then show they are the Southerner of choice in
the Tennessee and Virginia races, then they have a true shot at
slowing Kerry's momentum.
Maine, we would assume, would be Kerry's
because of his northeastern roots.
Clark immediately has the upper hand
over Edwards in Virginia due to its strong military and conservative
base, but Kerry might fight Clark for the military vote there.
Here are the keys that each candidate
must use to come out on top:
Edwards must use the beneficial press he
is getting - and hope it continues, which it may not - to the
fullest, trying to assert that the media attention shows he is the
official second level contender and viable candidate.
Kerry must come up with something more
than momentum. It helps a lot, but he has to find that extra
charm and appeal that will give him the ability to seal the deal in
the South.
And Clark needs to make his case as the
thriving non-establishment candidate, succeeding against all the
efforts of the media - and the DNC - to wipe him out candidate.
He needs to come out of last night with a smile and a mock of the
media, like a prize fighter who just took the champ's best shot and
didn't go down to the canvass. Clark has to make clear what a
feat he has achieved, point out how the media is entirely against
him and yet he still thrived. Again, if Clark doesn't make
this a central theme of his campaign he will likely not move on.
If he does, the confidence of his supporters will grow and the media
coverage will truly change.
The main dynamic at play is that Kerry
is a polar opposite to Clark and Edwards. The reality with
Kerry is that he is better on paper and at first glance than when
you really get to know him. The more people become acquainted
with Kerry, the less people like him. This is why he went from
frontrunner to bottomrunner earlier.
With Clark and Edwards it is the
opposite. People are a little standoffish about Clark at first
since he is new to politics and the Democratic Party, but once they
get to know him, they become passionate supporters.
Edwards as well has the ability to win
people over.
What is occurring that is propelling
Kerry so far ahead is that large numbers of people who haven't been
paying much attention are getting that first glance and thinking he
looks good on paper. By the time they realize he is not quite
what the salesmen are making him out to be, their primary has come
and gone.
With the cycle so compressed this
election, Clark and Edwards have a real challenge to get people to
realize they are about to purchase the wrong model, to get people
past initial impressions. Edwards has the media working for
him. Clark needs to make the media working against him work
for him. Reagan did it. In fact, the Republicans have
been doing this for years. The American people love nothing
more than to hate the media, and they only need to have it pointed
out to them the bias that is occurring for them to come to see it,
and once they do, it becomes something they draws them more strongly
to their candidate, infuriated by the unfair assault.
Wes Clark, Jr. lashed out today at the
media coverage his father has suffered with. "We sacrificed a
hell of a lot for this country over 34 years. We lived in a damn
trailer when I was a freshman in high school," he said, and, "It's
all about access. You know you would be denied access (to important
stories and the President) if you all covered this fairly."
That is exactly the case. It is
clear the Clarks know this is the case. And if they do not
make this case as a part of their campaign, then indeed they have
become politicians incapable of saying even the most basically,
blatantly obvious truths.
Wes, Jr. made the case perfectly, that
it is amoral and un-American to smear and ignore a good patriot who
gave over 34 years of service to his country, that it is un-American
to try and force an opinion on the Presidential race - that is what
the Soviet Union used to do with its puppet media, and we can never
allow that be done here. That is a message the American people
need to hear, and the case Clark will make if he is indeed still a
straight-talking citizen set out to right his country's ship.
And we are truly at the point now where
if Clark lets the media's horrible, blatantly biased treatment of
him continue, he will not rise to the next level he needs to achieve
in order to continue on.
In addition, with domestic issues so
high on people's agenda, the Clark camp will have to show they can
compete with Kerry and Edwards on these issues. Clark has the
strongest foreign policy case, but both Edwards and Kerry still
present their domestic agendas with more authority, comfort, and
detail.
Tuesday night, everybody got just enough
of what they needed. This next round is time for them to get
more than just what they need. They need to get some more of
what they ultimately want, as well as make sure their opponents do
not.
But for now, each camp can celebrate,
knowing they succeeded against adversity. And Wes Clark, Jr.
can laugh in the face of those who had him so irritated today -
because he and his father took their best shot, and they are still
standing, with one championship belt raised high in their hands.
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