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January 5, 2008
– Obama is for change, Clinton is more electable. Those
were the selling points in Iowa, and they will be for the
foreseeable rest of the primary season.
Now, let me begin by saying Iowa's
results mean nothing. It is a non-representative state with an
abnormal caucus process. So forget those results for the
moment.
But let's really look at the two remaining candidates for the
Democratic Party (Edwards no longer has a realistic chance now that
he didn't take Iowa.)
There is the pro-Clinton side of things:
people who would have supported Edwards are more likely to move over
to Clinton than Obama now that Edwards doesn't seem like a potential
winner, because those were white bread voters. This spells
real trouble for Obama as the primary season progresses.
And beginning with New Hampshire, Obama
moves to a different part of the country which is much more
skeptical, jaded, and sophisticated than the rural/religious Iowans.
The big question with Obama will be
whether it is just a nice speech, or a speech given by a man who can
stand at the pinnacle of the most powerful, important helm not just
for the nation but the world, and deal properly with everything that
comes, all while handling a massive learning curve born of never
having governed on a significant, executive level anywhere.
The thing is, have you seen Obama speak?
From his famous introduction at John Kerry's convention, he not only
commanded the stage, but moved and touched the nation in a way only
the (Bill) Clintons, Reagans, and Kennedys can do. Hillary
Clinton can't come close. She has grown to be a very solid
speaker, but it is obviously canned, practiced, and measured.
John Edwards is somewhat hokey and contrived.
Obama has that fire and charm, and the
genuineness that gives the impression that this is not about speech
writers, but about speaking from the heart. His delivery
doesn't just portray power, it portrays purpose. His passion,
unlike so many other candidates of recent years, doesn't seem to be
to obtain that White House seat, but to deal with things that are
bothering him about the nation. And he comes across as a free
man, no pun intended with regard to his African background.
McCain can claim to be a maverick free of lobbyist influence.
Obama reeks of it. He is a strong, tall, charming man on a
mission.
And when Obama speaks, he speaks to and
for the entire nation. During his Iowa victory speech, the
crowd at one point started chanting something you don't usually hear
during primary victory rallies: USA, USA, USA. And it
wasn't at his prompting. It wasn't some cheap Bush-like ploy
to portray fake-patriotism via excessive proclamation and bravado.
It was people overflowing with true excitement about the potential
to have a real leader who takes their country back from the
corporations, the Bush-brand permanent government, and the hybrid
semi-sellouts, as liberals see it, like Hillary Clinton.
The key to Hillary Clinton's campaign is
that she will be more electable. The spoken reason is that she
is more experienced. The unspoken reason is that she is white.
But when it comes to presidential
elections, more than anything else, people vote for the person;
above policies; above what may be best. Reagan. Clinton.
Kennedy. Even 'W'.
We'll forget about Nixon - that, um, had
a different story behind it.
All of these presidents had a charm, a
charisma. Reagan was far more to the right than most of
America, but he won the entire nation by landslides; the way Obama
won the lilly white downstate portions of Illinois by a landslide.
Most importantly, perhaps, is that Obama
has one thing that Hillary doesn't, which was also what Gore and
Kerry lacked - the core of the Democratic party, the liberal base,
is fired up about him the way they've only been about Nader and
Dean.
At last, the Democrats may have a Dean
with charisma, a Nader with a clue.
He lacks experience. He doesn't
lack vision. He lacks white skin. He doesn't seem to
lack thick skin.
Barack Obama emits leader. He
emits love of nation. He emits independence.
Intelligence. And understanding. All tied together with
a heartfelt humanity.
Clinton, on the other hand, doesn't just
hold the baggage of a decade and a half of right-wing attacks, but
the reality that everything is different now than it was even 8
years ago. Remember 2000, when Joe Lieberman seemed a great
choice because the hybrid, semi-Republican centrist Democrat of the
type that Bill Clinton introduced was thought of as the ultimate
model? That has changed. Liberal is no longer a dirty
word, and liberal policies are no longer off the table but thought
of as maybe a better alternative to the mess conservativism has
brought.
Hillary's biggest problem may not be
that she is Hillary Clinton, but that she is, policy-wise, Hillary
Lieberman in many liberals' eyes. And the question then comes
up, is she in fact more electable? We have seen again and
again the Democratic candidates suffer because of lack of turnout on
the part of their base. Could Obama's fiery support by the
Deaniacs actually make him the more electable candidate?
He's a bit young, a bit black, and a bit
checkered. But as Reagan and Bush have learned, if you have
your base drooling and revved, they can propel you to heights a
tepid coalition of this and that never will.
Add to that his non-partisan, one
America message, the immense power of his words to whip people into
chanting frenzies, and his undeniable charisma. And as for his
race, Obama has finally taken the race out of having a black person
in the race.
Race baiting candidates like Jesse
Jackson ran as black men. Obama stands as the all-American
everyman. When you look at him, you see what you could have,
perhaps should have, done with your life. You see a man who
picked a strong direction after an ordinary, unextraodinary start,
and who committed not to seeking great offices, but to working hard
to achieve great things. It's that seeming selflessness about
Obama that is unprecedented in recent elections, and so disarming.
The one thing the Iowa victory has
bought Barack Obama is the nation's attention. Had he lost, no
one would give him an actual thought.
But thanks to Iowa, tonight the nation
will be watching. It is the beginning of an actual contest.
When Clinton and Obama take to the stage tonight in New Hampshire,
that's when the election may be decided. Opinions are not yet
formed in many places.
Is Hillary the more presidential,
electable candidate. Is she more capable of bringing change
and successfully campaigning?
Will Obama come across as presidential,
as someone who will succeed over the attacks on his brief muslim
encounter, his name's similarity to Osama, etc. which will come once
the right-wing dominated media, which is now playing nice with him
in hopes of eliminating Clinton before the general election, turns
to painting him as unlikeable, extreme, muslim, and not someone you
can trust - as they will.
It is an important moment for the
nation. The people have to not just weigh their passions and
opinions, but wade through the mass of right-wing hate Hillary/love
Obama propaganda that dominates.
Tonight, they will get to use their own
eyes and ears. Hillary can stand and deliver. Obama can
as well.
And the Democrats could not be happier
than to have the nation looking their way with such interest, while
the Republicans fade off a cliff of more of the same out-of-touch
extremist nonsense, drifting away into irrelevant oblivion.
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